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    July 30

    寂寞投资20070730

    在上周四和周五,大盘进行了两天调整。在周五回踩5日均线后,今天大盘依托均线,平盘开盘后,一路向上发起冲击,拉出了一个中阳柱,全天上涨95.41点,报收于4440.77点,成交量为1555.31E。
    今天从盘面来看,空方可以说根本没有组织起像样的抵抗,大盘在早盘攻占4400点之后,并没有遭到抵抗的压力,一路横盘整理直至收盘。成交量方面持续放大,上周及今日,六个交易日成交量近一万E,显示出市场重新回到交投活跃状态,而根据个股情况来看,很多个股在盘中都不约而同出现了近乎直线拉升的态势,笔者认为,这是短期资金,也就是所谓的游资,介入的比较明显的表现。
    大盘究竟要涨到何方?市场内到底是谁在做多?还有没有真正的空头?
    涨到何方?这一轮行情,从7月6号大盘跌破3600见底始,经过近两周在3600~3800之间的平台整理,于7月19日强势长阳突破平台,之后连续走出快速上涨行情,至今日为止,大盘7个交易日内上涨了500余点,5日均线走出45°单边上扬形态,成交量也明显放大,说是逼空行情也好,说是新一轮涨势起点也好,大盘创出两个月以来的新高,是不争的事实,而且近期内并没有变化的迹象,图形走得十分的强势。所以笔者仍然坚持对大盘原来的判断,不涨到4600点甚至更高点位,不出现蓝筹的集体发力,大盘不会轻易回头。现在若是回头,将在4300上下一百点再次堆积巨量,而且将对市场形成巨大的心理压力,很可能牛市的行情会戛然而止,无论是哪一方面,都不会愿意看到这样的结局。所以说,即便是逼空,也要逼到大家完全不认为是逼空行情为止。别忘了,上次3000点出现多空大分歧时,市场先是一路逼空至3600点附近,调整两天,一路涨到4000点附近,最后直到4300点才掉头向下。历史不会简单重复,但是,人性往往惊人相同。
    今日蓝筹股除钢铁股和能源股外,集体萎靡,以银行和金融股为首,大多数跑输大盘。
    消费类和有色类今日有所复苏,有色龙头驰宏锌锗今日涨停,是否是有效突破整理平台,还要看明后两天的走势;五粮液和贵州茅台今日均走出强于大盘的表现,后市消费板块有望在这两个龙头的带领下走强。
    钢铁板块今日强势出击,宝钢、武钢、鞍钢均大涨,本钢和鞍钢的合作或有实质性进展,今日封停,可关注。
    券商类在今日金融板块整体影响下,走势持续低迷。雅戈尔近日来重复盘中冲高,然后一路下洗的态势,不过成交量并未显著放大,并不认为是出货走势,而有可能是庄家刻意走出的骗线,5日均线依然有强支撑,持股待涨。
    今日操作:无。
    今日收益:雅戈尔   涨0.58%  收28.46
     

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